Thursday, September 25, 2008

My stock picks for the month of september and october

Looking for a date or love? Click here to find one for free!!

Find Singapore Apartment and Room Rentals here

I had listed the stocks that I am looking during this month at

There I had listed Tata Steel, Hotels and Reliance Communications as the ones which I am trying to get into. I got in Reliance Communications and Tata Steel in the first week but as you know Lehmann brothers and AIG screwed the entire financial industry and the Indian stock market went for a spin. They are atleast 10% down from where I bought them. I got into Indian Hotels as well and its stuck at the price where I bought which was after the crisis. They still remain my choices esp Indian Hotels and Tata Steel, I am looking to add some more of them.

In the mean time I took this meltdown to get into Reliance Industries and also used the bounced back after 700 bn Fed package to get out Infosys which proved to be a wise choice. I still have a major portion of my portfolio in technology and I know for sure that I am stuck with them for another couple of years.

I am also looking at Tata Chemicals, I already have it in my portfolio but only a meager number of shares. I added in few and will add some more. ICICI and DLF are at mouth watering price but already made a significant investment there so got to wait for few more weeks to add on more.

And I am going to use any upswing to get out of technology. I will keep cash and wait. Thats what I am going to do for the moment. Hope its not a long wait!!


Tuesday, September 16, 2008

16 Sep 2008 - My Investment Portfolio and How I Suck!!!

This is my portfolio. I had started investing from Nov 2007, the peak of Sensex. I am down by about 21% so far. I decided why the hell shouldn't I just publish my portfolio and see how it performs publicly. I have to see if I am as bad or as good, depending on your view, as the analysts in picking stocks. I am negative in almost all except for Infosys and Reliance Industries which I just picked up yesterday. About 40% of my portfolio was built during Nov '07 - Jan '08 period and I just started that's one of the reason why I feel not so bad about this performance. I intend to post this weekly (try!!).

MARUTI -17.02%


ICICI BANK -33.23%

IDFC -10.32%

ACC -25.18%


DLF -21.07%


INFOSYS +4.90%

NIIT -38.48%

NIIT TECH -49.75%


TCS -26.41%



PFIZER -14.84%

NTPC -3.24%

SUZLON -32.85%

INDIAN OIL -18.95%





Lehman bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch acquistion, Global Meltdown - Are we doomed?

Meltdown of the markets following the lehman bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch acquistion, on one hand, provides an opportunity to pick up some of the blue chip stocks at attractive prices but I think only the bold and the experienced can have the heart to get into it. I, as a novice, was in double mind whether to pick up stocks and continue with my strategy of value averaging or just give up on investing altogether.

With the markets so bad and never ending shocks I had to think hard whether investing in stocks is such a sensible option after all. I know for sure that the markets can be very different in another 2 years time but the emotions were stronger than logic. Even though I was confused I did manage to pick up a small piece of Reliance Industries. But I learned something for sure during this past year - its no use listening to all the analysts out there. They seem to know as little as what I know.

Beginning of the year there was a herd shouting that the Sensex will reach 25k and just a couple of months ago there was another herd that predicted oil reaching 200 dollars. Where the fuck are these people and on what basis do they predict things.

Its very obvious that analysing the global environment and the performance of an index and that of companies are so god damn hard and, maybe, impossible that many of them were just guessing. I agree with some studies that some of the successful managers were just plain lucky and if you hold stocks for a long term then stock picks from a novice like me can outperform these highly paid and knowledgeable professionals.

Maybe I am just overreacting at how greed of these big banks and institutions is causing so much distress. They are not at fault totally since I also got into stocks to earn double figure returns and its in, well, most of us. They are also human so we can forgive them.

I truly think that the world is getting complicated all the time, people dont like things simple anymore. Otherwise why the need for such complex financial products? And people are now more materialistic, we are never satisfied with what we have. We perenially want better devices, better returns, better lifestyle, bigger houses, bigger paychecks and so on. I have the feeling that we, humans, are paving the path for our own destruction. Its clear everywhere you see!!


Thursday, September 11, 2008

Stocks to Invest during the month of September

I had mentioned in my other blog post the stocks that I am looking at the moment to put in, in fact I already did, my money. One of them is Tata Steel. I thought I will look at the various analyst/brokerage houses predictions for Tata Steel and see whose estimate was closer to the actual stock price.

My decision to buy Tata Steel is purely on its reaching its 52 week low. I do hear news about steel prices cooling down which will in turn reduce the margins of these companies but I assume this information has been reflected in the stock price which should be according to the efficient market theories.

The following gives the estimates from 4 houses which I picked from Rediff. One interesting thing is that Tata Steel's price has nose dived in the last few days which were after these houses published their recommendation. I don't know the reasons for this but lets see how far these houses are right. I will keep updating this post for any new estimates and track this stock progress.

Broking house Action Date Price (Rs)

Edelweiss Research Buy Sep 10, 08 1,035.00

Indiabulls Hold Sep 10, 08 605.00

Religare Buy Sep 09, 08 780.00

Merrill Lynch Buy Sep 04, 08 700.00


Find Singapore Apartment and Room Rentals here

Looking for a date or love? Click here to find one for free!!

Tata's have the will to overcome obstacles with Nano

The following is another news item that shows Ratan Tata's will to deliver Nano on the promised date

Find Singapore Apartment and Room Rentals here

Looking for a date or love? Click here to find one for free!!

News Report:-

Tata Motors is all set to manufacture 1,000 Nanos at its Pune plant. The vendors have released their last lot of components for Nano on Thursday, which will be delivered to Pune within a day or two.

“Tata Motors, which is keenly watching the developments at Singur, is getting itself ready to rollout Nano in October. If the Singur logjam is not resolved within a fortnight, then they have to make some arrangements to roll out Nano from any of its plants. As of now, this does not look to be a part of the much-speculated Plan B,” Tata circles indicated.

Incidentally, Tata Motors had informed its 55-odd vendors of Nano to supply components for 1,000 Nanos by September 8 to the Pune factory. This was also confirmed by a leading vendor, who had invested in the Singur vendor park, and will be supplying sheet metal for Nano chassis.

Incidentally, nearly 3,000 components are required to manufacture a Nano. However, the vendors also feel that the Pune plant will not be able to meet the volumes that Tatas are looking at for Nano in the next two to three years time.
The official Tata Motors spokesperson told: “Tata Motors wishes to dissociate itself from any speculation regarding Nano.”

Interestingly, after tension escalated at Singur, Tata Motors had issued technical approvals to vendors which will enable them to supply components for Nano, if the car is produced at the company’s Pantnagar, Pune and Lucknow plants.

Work at the vendor park in Singur has come to a standstill after the decision on Sunday to stop work there till the joint committee zeros in on land that can be doled out to the landlosers.

A senior official of Rucha Engineering said: “We can only start work at the site if Tata Motors gives us the green signal and if the environment becomes conducive at Singur. Tata Motors has given us a October 1 deadline to be ready with our plant. As of now, we have not got any other communication from Tata Motors. We are hopeful that Singur issue will be resolved at the earliest.”

Skeptics answered - Tata's Nano passes Indian road test

Find Singapore Apartment and Room Rentals here

Looking for a date or love? Click here to find one for free!!

Here is the news for those skeptical about the Nano!! Nano passed the road test so its fit to be sold anytime from now on.

Here is the news report

The Singur plant may not be ready to roll out the Nano just yet, but the Rs 1 lakh car is now officially roadworthy for Indian tarmac.

The car was successfully ‘homologated’ by the Pune-based Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI), which handed over the Nano’s clearance certificate to Tata Motors last week.

This means that the car has met all the specified criteria for roadworthiness laid out by the government including emissions or noise & vibration and can now ply on Indian roads.


Indian Retail slow down claims another victim - a big one!!

A RIL spokesperson said in an email, "We started the mart with 1,55,000 sq ft. We have right sized to 1,00,000 sq ft. We plan to use the excess space generated for other retail ventures in the pipeline."

This statement speaks the story. This is what was stated in CNBC

Reliance had to slowdown expansion and even downsize its hypermarkets, just two years since the launch of its retail operations. In Ahmedabad, it is leasing out an entire floor to other retail players, possibly an American restaurant. The hypermarket that started out over three floors is being reduced to two, the third being leased out
Too many players entered into retail in too short a period of time. This happens time and again -businesses trying to get pie of a market that has huge growth potential subsequently creating a bubble which can then only grow as big before it bursts. Virtue of patience is lost by individuals and businesses alike. Everybody wants to have those profits right now, can't wait for few years. This includes me as well, I don't have the patience to hold on to stocks that are stagnant but have good potential in few months time.

Warren Buffet is right when he says
"The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient."

Click here For Singapore Rentals

Click here to find a date

Investment opportunities for the month of September

I am looking at Tata Steel and Indian Hotels for investments during September. I follow the Value averaging method of investing. I already picked up some shares of Tata Steel today at 525 apiece. I really think it is available at a discount with minimal downside.

I really would like to pick up Indian Hotels, they had announced today to set up 50 new hotels under Gateway name. But I ran of money for this month since I picked up some piece of Reliance Communication which is also available at a great price with limited downside.

I am selling off some of the non-performing stocks to get the rupees to invest these good stocks. But I am confused if I should put in more money this month or should I wait for October. I think the markets will still be as volatile as now for the next 2-3 months so I should be able to pick them up at prices closer to what they are right now. Lets see!


Click here For Singapore Rentals

Click here to find a date

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

DLF decision to buy back good for the stock?

I don't know the exact reason why DLF decided to buy back shares in the open market and I really don't care since I believe it is a very good company and will continue to do well in future and, more importantly, I think it is available at great price. May be that's one reason why they want to buy back!

Anyhow, I am more interested in seeing if this has any impact on the stock price. Will it raise in the short term? Is it good for the investors who would like to hold on? I think the price could move up a little bit and also that it is good for the rest of the guys who like to keep invested as, obviously, there will be fewer number of shares and shareholders to trade in so there will be a big demand when the markets correct in the coming months.

But having said that I think one needs to keep an eye on DLF when the stock price reaches peak levels. Will they take that opportunity to sell off and make a gain? This is something that needs to be looked in the next 2-3 years time.


Click here For Singapore Rentals

Click here to find a date

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Tata Nano and the Singur Issue - Mamata Banerjee's dangerous political game

Is Mamata Banerjee a bitch who is out to gain political mileage by acting to promote the farmer's cause or is she the true savior as she seeks to project herself? Well, its hard to answer this especially without knowing the truth behind the protests.

There is definitely a point in the protests but, only if, the farmers are not adequately compensated for their lands and also for their future. What I mean by that is if farmers were paid much below the market prices and if they are not being offered any kind of jobs within the plant, however menial it maybe, that can ensure their future income.

In my opinion the small farmers are better off selling their land and getting employed. Farming is no easy job anymore - We hear news about the suicides from so many parts of the country, don't we?

Protests, for any other reason, is either purely political or Tata's corporate rivals could be playing their dirty games to stall the Nano from taking off.

I have to praise Mamata for one thing - the timing of her entry. She waited till the last moments to take up this cause knowing fully well that Tata's have no option but to settle when the plant is at its final stages. Its too expensive for Tata's to move anywhere else at this point and this could put the entier Nano thing at risk. She is a shrewd woman, thats for sure.

So whatever may be the motives there is only one way out i.e for Tata's and the West Bengal Govt. to compromise and give in to some, if not all, of the demands.


Click here For Singapore Rentals

Click here to find a date

Stocks that I missed to buy

One of the stock which I thought will do well but that I missed to buy is Crompton Greaves. I was watching for some time now and I saw it fall to 200 and I wanted to get in but I always got distracted by other stocks when it came to actually put in my money. I bought minuscule number of shares around 220 and sold at 250. I wanted to get in when it came back to 200 but it never did and its right now hovering 280.

Stocks in my focus at the moment!!

Some of the stocks that I am looking to get in at the moment (these vary almost on daily basis) are

  1. IDFC - I think its available at a good price

  2. IndiaBulls Financial Services - I think it fell too sharply so provides a good trading opportunity. To be frank I don't have much idea about its business and the reason for the fall.

  3. Indian Hotels - Again its available for a good price
I would also like to get into Reliance Communications but not too sure about Mr.Anil Ambanis future plans for it. And my plan was to invest more into DLF and some of the banks but unfortunately the oil prices dropped and these stocks zoomed.