Nifty adopts Free Float market cap calculation methodology

Nifty has moved on to free float method for calculating the weights of the companies in the index. I just checked on investopedia for the definition of free-float methodology and this is what it says

Free-float methodology market capitalization is calculated by taking the equity's price and multiplying it by the number of shares readily available in the market. Instead of using all of the shares outstanding like the full-market capitalization method, the free-float method excludes locked-in shares such as those held by promoters and governments.

Calculated as:

And it also goes on to say that "The free-float method is seen as a better way of calculating market capitalization because it provides a more accurate reflection of market movements."

And what was the impact of this?

"stocks that will lose their weightage in the index have seen sharp falls in share prices in the past few days," says a report from business line. It also points out that the selling is from the index funds who have to realign their portfolios based on the new weights assigned. Some of the companies that have lost weightage are NTPC, ONGC, Power Grid, SAIL and Bharti Airtel.

In general I think this is a move in the right direction for NSE and Nifty.

rk

07 Mar 2008 : Today is not going to be good for the india stock market

Its all bad news out of US and the US markets. Today is going to be another bad day for the markets. Yesterday, if the markets had opened, would have seen one of those rare better days but I don't have much hope for today.

RK
http://yourmitra.wordpress.com

05 Mar 2008 : Indian Stock Market News and Analysts Tips

MoneyControl
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Gbl weakness accentuated Budget negatives: Kotak Sec
• Mkts to be choppy for 3-6 months: Lehman
• '08 to be down year for mkts: Morgan Stanley
• Mkts still seeing excessive valuations: Damani
• Farm loan waiver +ve in short-term: MF Global
• Mkts to consolidate for a month: Kotak Mah

Sify
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eicher cuts truck prices after budget duty drop
Truckmaker Eicher Motors Ltd said on Monday it will cut commercial vehicle prices by between Rs 5,000 and Rs 19,000 each, following a government plan to cut taxes on cars, trucks and motorbikes

TRAI to review FI limits for broadcasting sector
In view of convergence of broadcasting and communication technologies, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) today proposed to review Foreign Investment (FI) limits in the electronic media to provide level playing field among competing technologies

Exports grow 20.47% in Jan
Exports showed a healthy growth of 20.47 per cent in January this fiscal over the same month last year, but expanded by a single digit figure of 7.66 per cent in rupee terms due to pricey domestic currency

Narayana Murthy to join HSBC board
Global banking giant HSBC on Monday said Indian IT major Infosys' Chief Mentor N R Narayana Murthy will join its board in May with an annual renumeration of 65,000 pounds (about Rs 52 lakh)

The Financial Express
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bihar okays $10-bn investments
The Bihar government has approved investment proposals worth over Rs 40,000 crore, many by big corporate entities, but there are still hurdles in the way like poor infrastructure and land acquisition, the state's latest economic survey said

FM: were not as decoupled as we think
Finance minister P Chidambaram appeared unruffled by the downslide in the domestic stock markets, attributing it to a slowdown in US markets. The benchmark Sensex slid 5.1% on Monday, tracking other weak Asian markets.

World economy slips further, prices gear up
The world economy geared down another notch in February but the inflation threat intensified, data showed on Monday, posing the biggest challenge for central bankers in a generation

Investors lose Rs 2.7 lakh cr since Budget; FIIs sell heavily
Over Rs 2.70 lakh crore has been wiped out in market capitalisation since the Budget was presented on February 29, when the Sensex touched 17,578.72. The M-cap of the Bombay Stock Exchange, which touched Rs 58,85,951 crore on February 29, 2008 is now down to Rs 56,15,813 crore on March 3,

Leather sector faces huge lay-offs, seeks fiscal support
Continuous fall in export earnings owing to the widening gap in the rupee-dollar parity is forcing the leather industry substantial production cuts that might lead to lay-off of more than one lakh employees

HSBC absorbs $17-bn subprime hit
HSBC's profits rose 10% last year, just below analysts' forecasts, as strong gains in Asia helped Europe's biggest bank absorb a $17.2 billion hit for bad debts largely due to US housing problems.

Nano fears hit two-wheeler manufacturers
The Nano fear seems to have begun to creep into the minds of two-wheeler manufacturers. In a post-Budget meeting with the finance minister on Monday, the biggies of two-wheeler industry, Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto, requested for a further reduction in excise duty on two-wheelers from 12% as announced

The Economic Times
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RBI may allow trusts to invest abroad
This would open the gates for Indian educational institutions like IITs and IIMs besides religious bodies and charities to invest in or acquire overseas assets.

International News
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stocks flat as Alcoa, Exxon rise; Nasdaq falls
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow and the S&P 500 ended little changed on Monday as soaring commodity prices

February auto sales tumble, Detroit hit hardest
DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales tumbled in February in the face of a slumping economy and high gas prices with double-digit declines by all three struggling Detroit-based automakers.

RK
Rental Classifieds and Real Estate Social Network

03 Mar 2008 : Indian Stock Market News Round up

Sify
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loan waiver will not lead to collapse of banks: FM
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Sunday sought to allay apprehensions that the Rs 60,000 crore farmers' package will lead to collapse of the cooperative and scheduled commercial banks and weaken the banking system

JMC Projects: Buy
JMC Projects has managed a successful turnaround, transitioning from a company with eroding net worth to one with a strong balance sheet in two years.

UTV Software: Hold
UTV Software, which has firmly established itself in the movie production business, is inching faster towards its ambition of becoming a global integrated media player with a presence spanning television content, broadcasting, films, gaming and animation

Divi’s Laboratories: Buy
Investments with a two-three year perspective can be considered in the stock of Divi’s Laboratories, a leading player in the pharma contract manufacturing space

Allcargo Global: Buy
Investments with a two-three year perspective can be considered in the stock of Allcargo Global Logistics, a leading integrated logistics solution provider

Infotech Enterprises: Hold
Shareholders can continue to hold the Infotech Enterprises stock with a 12-18 month horizon

Tata undecided about reducing Nano price
Following the reduction in excise duties in the union budget, automobile major Tata Motors has slashed the prices of its Indica and SUV models. However, the company Saturday said it was undecided about lowering the price of its forthcoming model Nano, already considered the world's cheapest car at Rs 100,000 ($2,500).…

RIL, Essar raise petrol prices
Within a couple of weeks, the two private sector petroleum companies Reliance Industries and Essar Oil have again resorted to a hike in petrol and diesel prices. Reliance has raised petrol price by Rs 4.5 per litre and left diesel price untouched.

Commodity trading to turn a costly affair
Introduction of commodity transaction tax (CTT) similar to that of securities transaction tax (STT) seems to have not gone well with the exchanges and broking firms alike

The Financial Express
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OEH wont let Tatas take over
Luxury hotel chain Orient-Express, in which the Tatas have become the second-largest shareholder, has said talks about its possible acquisition could affect its share price although its anti-takeover measures are firmly in place

Dalal Street to follow global cues, say analysts
The Indian Stock market is likely to follow global cues in the coming weeks, while the Budget proposals for 2008-09 are unlikely to have any prolonged impact on investor sentiments, said analysts

Securities transaction tax to help boost govts earnings
Despite the sluggishness in manufacturing and a lower growth projection, along with additional spending due to projected rise in food and oil prices, the government hopes to earn Rs 6,02,935 crore though tax and non tax revenues, a 14.8% rise in its earnings.

Kamath sees no rate cuts soon
The chief executive of ICICI Bank Ltd, India's biggest private-sector bank, said on Friday he did not expect the country's central bank to ease interest rates soon

Market corrections are part and parcel of long-term bull markets
The recent correction has been around 20%, while the May '06 correction was over 25%. This is not alarming as Indian equity markets have a history of sharp corrections ranging from 20-25%

The Economic Times
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virgin Mobile enters India, partners Tata Teleservices
Sir Richard Branson decided to hang in front of a five-star hotel in Mumbai on Sunday, to announce the launch of his brand in India’s mobile phone market

Nano effect: Tatas can stand by Rs 1-lakh car promise
A 4% reduction in excise duty on small cars has augured well for the Nano, the Rs 1 lakh car of Tata Motors

It's pay-back time as FM caps mkt speculation
The increase in short-term capital gains tax and no reduction in corporate tax are sentimentally negative for capital markets

International News:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Asian stocks savaged as dollar plumbs new depths (Reuters)
The dollar fell to a record low against a basket of currencies on Monday, dragging Asian stock markets down and compounding worries about a likely U.S. recession and more write-downs in the global financial sector

Singapore shares down on US economy worries
Singapore shares were down 2.8 per cent in opening trade early Monday over concerns about the US economy and financial sector

RK
Rental Classifieds and Real Estate Social Network

Indian Stock Market News - 27 Feb 2008 : Another good day ahead!

Recently, Indian Markets are having good day only if US markets had one. Today wont be any different. US had a good day so we will too.

News Round up

MoneyControl
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mkts need time-based correction: Kotak Sec
'Lack of triggers keeping investors away'
Use every dip to buy for invest: Baliga

Sify
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tata preparing to sign Jaguar deal early March
Tata Motors Ltd is all set to sign a landmark deal to take over two iconic British automobile brands, Land Rover and Jaguar, from US carmaker Ford Motor Co early next week.

Pfizer introduces antismoking drug in India
City-based $172-million Pfizer India Ltd, part of US pharmaceutical multinational Pfizer Inc, Tuesday launched the Varenicline prescription drug in India that helps smokers to kick their nicotine addiction

Bharti Airtel to set up undersea cable linking US with Asia
Telecom giant Bharti Airtel on Tuesday said it would set up a new undersea cable linking the United States with Asia in partnership with five global telecom firms.

The Financial Express
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wheat breaches $12 for first time after biggest gain since 02
Chicago wheat prices rose by the most in more than five years, breaching $12 a bushel for the first time as investors poured money into agricultural commodities on signs that global crop production isn't keeping pace with demand.

Re rises a second day; bonds fall ahead of Budget
The rupee advanced a second day, on speculation overseas investors will add to their holdings of local equities as the benchmark stock index extended gains.

REL plans share buyback; board to decide on Mar 5
Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group company Reliance Energy Ltd announced a move to buy back its own shares. A meeting of the company's board of directors will be held on March 5 to consider the buyback, among other issues.

Nod to short selling by institutional investors
Just a few days before presenting the Budget, finance minister P Chidambaram has finally given the go ahead to short selling by institutional investors by clearing issues on its taxation.

The Economic Times
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pfizer, Novartis and Merck test negative in India
Pharma giants like Pfizer, Novartis and Merck have seen their market capitalisation erode over the last three years, as sales started to witness marginal growth.

Maruti to kick off price war with diesel Dzire
The diesel sedan market is likely to witness a price war with Maruti Suzuki India Ltd all set to launch one of the cheapest diesel sedans in the domestic market


RK
Rental And Real Estate Classifieds and Social Network
http://yourmitra.wordpress.com

Indian Stock Market News - 25 Feb 2008 : Expect higher opening with other Asian Markets opening in positive

Weekend News round up is below. The one big news was the issue of bonus shares by Reliance Power in the ratio of 3:5 and the other news being Anil Ambani crying foul over the hammering of the Reliance Power shares on the first trading day. He seems to think there is a conspiracy behind it. I will do the same if I were him, People invested in Reliance Power because of the Ambani name tag and have lost faith and money once it got listed. So its a black mark for him and the next time there is a IPO from him there will not be such a enthusiasm

Anyhow, the Indian markets should open higher following the global cues ( as analysts say). But how the week shapes up is anybody's guess. I am planning to sell off those companies which I think are over-valued on every rise and may buy other good stocks at a lower prices. What to do I was also greedy in going for the stocks that were riding the wave. Bought them at a high price and they are now 10-20% down.

Sify
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Govt asks ICAI to prepare report on IPO valuation
In the wake of controversy relating to valuation of public issues, the government has directed the apex body of chartered accountants, ICAI, to conduct a study on the initial public offer pricing and suggest ways for protecting the interest of investors.

50% of malls may shut down by '10, hype to go
Consolidation in the retail industry would result in nearly 50 per cent of the malls shutting down by March 2010 and the hoopla surrounding the sector would considerably subside by then, a brand expert has said.

The Financial Express
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anil adds 3:5 Power to shares
In an attempt to compensate investors for the poor listing of its shares, Reliance Power proposed an issue of free bonus shares to all investors, excluding the promoters, in the ratio of 3:5. This apart, the promoter and chairman of the company, Anil Dhirubhai Ambani, announced a voluntary contribution of 2.6%

Anil insists Sebi probe into RPower stock hammering
Anil Ambani, promoter and chairman of Reliance Power Ltd reiterated his demand for an investigation by the capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India into the hammering of the RPower stock following its listing on the bourses on February 11

Economic Times
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Budget is the key event for market watchers
Market watchers are hoping for some positive measures from the finance minister as market analysts are expecting that the Budget might cut corporate income tax

Rel Power bonus issue cuts losses by 40%
The Board at its meeting approved a bonus issue wherein 3 shares would be allotted for every 5 held by the non-promoter shareholders. Special: Reliance Power IPO

India riding an optimism bubble
From capital markets to cricketers, real estate to HR, every asset category seems to be trading several times above fair value

India Inc's business confidence rises by 5.4%
If the positive sentiment persists despite the turmoil in the capital market, corporate earnings may be back on track in the coming quarters.

NSE deactivates 372 F&O terminals in Jan
Terminals of 372 members in the futures and options segment were deactivated for a day during January due to margin payemnt failure.


International Markets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan stocks up over 2 pct, subprime worries ease

Singapore share prices opened higher Monday, following Wall Street's rally on Friday

As China's factory floors feel the pressure from spiralling costs, there is growing nervousness in the rest of the world that the Asian giant's next big export could be inflation


RK

RentalAndRealEstate.com - Rental and Real Estate Classifieds and Social Network

http://yourmitra.wordpress.com

18 - Feb -2008 : News and Views

News Reports

Sify

Short-term call: Markets may have bottomed out
Market may see a bout of upward movements
Equities headed for a tradable bounce
Blame yourself every time a market expert fails you
Reliance Power proposes bonus shares to non-promoters
India among top three global realty markets

Financial Express

FIIs equity exposure falls, but their numbers rise sharply in 08
A career in investment banking proves to be a popular choice
Markets dont decide prices; the fundamentals do

Economic Times

R Power bonus proposal to drive market today
FM may clear $5 bn fund for India Inc's M&A play
Rel Power demands SEBI probe in IPO blues
Real estate funds good for small investors

Yahoo Finance

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks firm despite weak economic data (at Reuters)

Reuters

Asian shares may shudder at consumer chill

RK
Rental and Real Estate Classifieds

15 - Feb -2008 : Analyst's Views and whats in store for the day ahead!

Mr.Bernanke's comments have pulled down the US markets yesterday and the Asian markets are following suit today morning. My guess is that India will be no different.

If you had read some of the analysts views about the yesterday's surge its clear that they see it just as a blip and not the start of a new bull run. Trading volumes were low yesterday so they claim investors have not fully participated which means there is still lack of confidence.

If the US markets had closed with some positive news then I would have hoped that Indian markets would have ended the week bringing joy to all the investors and traders but its going to be another rough ride today.

One thing is clear it does not matter how good the Indian economy is and will be growing but it really matters how US economy is. Perhaps this will be the case till China and India become the world's two biggest economies then the stock markets will reflect the true condition of the economy.

I will be updating the post through out the day as when the analyst's views come in.

PS: Asian markets have opened in the red

RK
RentalAndRealEstate.com

15 -Feb - 2008 : Overnight Headlines to start your day

Overnight headline's:

Economic Times

• Promoters take advantage of mkt meltdown
• Separate hype from reality on US slowdown: Accenture
• RCom for possible takeover of Capgemini
• India, China to drive auto growth in 2008: Daimler

Financial Express

• Govt Bites The Bullet: Fuel Prices Hiked
• Indias gold demand rises 6%
• Financial reforms unlikely to take place before LS polls
• Steel companies relent, agree to roll back hike

CNN Money

• Wall Street slumps as investors react to Fed chair's economic outlook.Stocks tumbled Thursday as investors reacted to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony that economic conditions are likely to get worse before they get better
• Gore to Wall Street: beware of 'subprime carbon'
• Boeing partners with Tata for plane parts

Sify

• Boeing, Tata announce new joint venture
• Wipro unit wins $50 m outsourcing deal
• Idea adds 1.2 million new connections in 2007-08
• 'IT sector layoffs unrelated to economic slowdown'
• NIIT Tech adopts new model to boost profitability
• Punj Lloyd to build $282 m resort in Singapore

ChannelNewsAsia

• New York state governor Eliot Spitzer warned Thursday that bond and credit woes afflicting Wall Street and global markets could turn into a more damaging "financial tsunami."
• US dollar slips after Fed chief opens door to rate cuts
• Dow slumps as Fed chief sees 'sluggish' growth
• US sub-prime crisis costs global loss of US$7.7 trillion
  

MoneyControl

• Mkt gains driven by large-scale short covering: MS
• Fuel prices hiked to avoid fiscal system collapse: PM
• Volatility to continue for now: Mangal Keshav

Business Standard

• Tatas find an ally in Orient-Express battle
• Boeing, Tata form India JV for aerospace parts
• Cap on foreign inflow into debt market to stay: RBI
• India can sustain 9% growth: PM

14 - Feb -2008 : Happy Valentines day to all the investors and traders!!

Finally, there is something to cheer about on Valentines day. There were positive news everywhere - US retail sales were better than expected, Japan economy grew more than expected and the the markets did not disappoint.

It was a brilliant day. Sensex closed at 17766, up 817 points and Nifty at 5202, up 272 points from the previous close. More importantly there were no wild swings during the day. It was pretty stable which is the most positive news.

European markets are also trading in the positive and if US closes positive today then we can expect a bonanza tomorrow and at least I can recover all my losses. Looking forward to it.

The one stock I am worried about in my portfolio is Satyam Computers. I bought it at 442 and have been holding it for 4 months now and I have not seen go past 442, expect briefly. So I am in a dilemma to sell it or hold it. Lets see how it goes tomorrow.

I end this post with some of the Analyst's view from the day

In the IT space, if Satyam stays above Rs 420 one can hold on to the stock for long term and it has a target price of Rs 500-520 in two weeks, says says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business

Following the fuel price hike, ONGC amd Oil India will share 33% of under recoveries, says Oil Secretary M.S. Srinivasan, on NDTV Profit

If one has a 6-8 month horizon, stocks to accumulate are ICICI Bank, SBI, BHEL and L&T as they are likely to offer good returns, says Shishir Kedia, technical anlayst with Religare Securities, on CNBC Awaaz

Investment sentiment continues to be cautious and that trend is likely to continue for a few weeks, says Malcolm Wood of Morgan Stanley, on CNBC TV18. The market is offering tremendous buying opportunity at this time, he adds

Global concerns are not yet over and we are still not out of the woods, feels Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities, on NDTV Profit

The market had gone down too far, too fast and it is advisable to wait and watch in this scenario, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials, on NDTV Profit. This relief rally needs to be sustained and the market is not running away on the higher side for investors, he advises


The market has got some positive breather from the oil price hike, says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey, on CNBC-TV18. Next week the market is likely to see be in the range of 16200-18500, he adds

The petrol and diesel price hike will see an annualised benefit to oil companies of around Rs 6500 crore, reports NDTV Profit. The price hike will see IOC benefit by Rs 410 crore for the remaining of FY08, says S V Narasimhan, director, finance of the company, on the channel

RK
RentalAndRealEstate.com

14 -Feb -2008 : Can Valentines day bring cheer to the Indian Markets?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Headlines of the Day:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economic Times

It is time for caution: Infosys CEO

Software firms worry US weakness will hit India biz

R Power loss totals about Rs 100 a share

India may feel pinch of global crisis: IMF

CNN Money

Retail sales spark rally, Blue chips rally for 3rd session

Financial Express

Another Fed cut likely as borrowing costs stay high

Learn lessons from American slump: Left tells UPA govt

Double taxation and multiple levies hampering growth

IMF asks India to gear up to tackle global crisis

Moodys alarm bell for 2008 as well

Sify

Rupee at 2-½ month lows on dollar squeeze

Special bonds pose risk to India deficit: JP Morgan

ChannelNewsAsia

Japan's economy grows 3.7% in fourth quarter of 2007

Singapore's economic growth moderates in Q4 of 2007

US dollar gains after strong US retail sales data

Wall Street rallies on upbeat retail sales data

Bush signs economic stimulus package

MoneyControl

See buying opportunities in mkt: Morgan Stanley

No positive triggers for mkt in near-term: Religare

Enough forces to keep mkts volatile: Pranav Sec

Sensex to see 21K-24K range in 1 year: MOST

See large exodus of foreign investors: ABN Amro

Business Standard

Sebi brings art funds under its canvas

US Markets ended in green, Asian Markets are in green at this moment and I can only see happy people the end of the day. Happy Valentines Day!!

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

13 - Feb -2008 : Market ends on a high!!

Indian Markets ended on a positive note even though the European markets were trading in the negative and Asian markets had closed mixed.

Day was mostly stable and the expected volatility was not there. But the overall market breadth was negative - there were more declines than advances.

Markets will be in trouble tomorrow if US and Europe closes in negative today. Its going to be a wait and watch policy. At least I am not going to invest anytime soon. I will wait for at least a week of stable trading before I make a decision. I am a novice and I don't want to risk anymore of my money

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

13 -Feb -2008 : Today could be a mixed bag!

First, the overnight headlines from some of the websites
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre -Market News:-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic Times

India's industrial activity is expected to cool due to the impact of RBI's policy tightening and the rupee's appreciation: HSBC

Financial Express

In a move that is expected to spur consumer spending, finance minister P Chidambaram on Tuesday asked public sector banks (PSBs) to ensure adequate credit supply for home and consumer durables purchases

At 24%, India to log highest SMB IT spend in BRIC

TCS to restructure for agility

Industrial growth plummets to 7.6%

Tea exports in 2007 fall 28% on rupee rise

Coffee touches a decade high

IBN Live

Market mayhem: Parliament panel wants change in norms

ChannelNewsAsia

US job cuts mount as slowdown erodes corporate profits

US stocks end mixed as Buffett reaches out to insurers

MoneyControl

Don't see knee jerk reaction below 16k: Mangal Keshav

Mkts can fall another 7%: India Infoline

Feb 11 crash similar to May '06 correction

Business Standard

CBDT wants capital gains tax for all FIIs :- n its pre-Budget proposals to the finance ministry, CBDT has sought an amendment to Section 115 AD of the Income Tax Act so that all foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pay capital gains tax on their profits in India

Revisit realty sector exemptions: I-T Dept

ICICI-Pru to launch first fixed maturity plan for retail investors

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Analysts Views:-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz :

Sentiments have turned negative in the market which has become 'sell on rise and not buy on dips'

Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley, on NDTV Profit :

Indian growth story is less likely to be affected by a US slowdown. Indian GDP growth is expected to be at 7.4% in FY09 and Indian inflation is being assumed at 4.7% average for FY09, he adds. Emerging markets are better poised to face a mild US recession, he says

Anil Maghnani, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18 :

Nifty has strong resistance at the 200 DMA level of 4975 and till it closes above that convincingly one should not go long in this market

Rajat Rajgarhia, Motilal Oswal, on CNBC TV18 :

Sensex is likely to be in the range of 20,000-24,000 in one year

Gaurang Shah, Geojit Financials, on Zee Business :

The banking sector is likely to outperform in the long term and stocks that can be accumulated in this space include ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank

Prashant Jain, HDFC MF, on CNBC Awaaz :

The market is likely to see short-term volatility but India's long-term story is intact

Sandep Wagle, Angel Broking, on NDTV Profit :

If Sensex breaks 15300 then it could be called a bear market but until then it could be termed a corrective phase

Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley, on CNBC TV18 :

About 10% lower than current levels would be a fair value for the market. The market is expected to give 18-20% earnings growth and one should stay with the largecap stocks. The Indian IPO market is likely to remain lackluster and investors may use lower prices to buy stocks

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

12-Feb-2008 : Is there light at the end of the tunnel!!

Since the markets are being hammered we now have analysts coming forward and talking about cyclical bear markets. Stock market analysts seem to be more like cricket commentators. All are good at making statements after the results are out! Anyways lets see what the markets have in store for us today.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Market : Is there a hope??
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fortunately, US Markets have closed in the positive and it is reflected in the Asian Markets. Most of them have opened in the positive. That's a good sign, at least for today.

I was hit by this most damning of statements while browsing through the various news sites

Sensex may fall another 20% by yr-end: First Global

Another one that caught my eye after the Reliance Power debacle is

Is it the end of the road for primary market?

Some encouraging statements were also there

TCS sees no immediate impact due to US slowdown

The global equity market meltdown hit India the least compared with other emerging equity markets in January. The Indian market shed 16% as against Russia's 16.12% and China's 21.40% - Do you consider this as positive?

Asian markets being in the positive territory is a solace so my guess is that Indian markets will follow them but how they close will be another matter altogether.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market : Did it react as expected?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market has opened positive in line with the other Asian markets but was hugely volatile through out the day. And it has closed in the negative but the day has to be termed very good as compared to yesterday. The volatility is still there - guess people are ready to sell off whenever the stocks make a slight recovery. It can only say that there are lot of speculators in the market than investors. People seem to be worried. India is still growing and there is no bad news on the economy front but still people don't seem to have the confidence. I am not sure what the FIIs and the MFs are doing. Are they staying put or selling off?

But one thing for sure, whatever happened in the last few weeks is good for the genuine investors who look to invest in fundamentally strong stocks. They must have felt like fools when the dubious stocks were running up crazy and the sound stocks stuck.

European markets are in positive but only marginally. If we will have a couple of days without negative news from US then the world markets will get a chance to stabilize and we can all take a breather.


RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

11-Feb-2008 : Predictions for 12th Feb??

Any readers willing to predict how the markets will move tomorrow?

Please leave a comment and it should make for interesting discussions

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

11-Feb-2008: Indian Stock Market Ends A Miserable Day

More misery was piled on the millions of retail investors and speculators today. De-coupling theory can now be completely thrown out of the door. I am not sure what the analysts, who were earlier, preaching about this theory have to say now.

Anyhow, this is how it has ended - Sensex down 833 points and closed at 16630, Nifty closed at 4857, down 263 points. And the much awaited Reliance Power listing became a most unpredicted disappointment - closed at 372!

All the Asian markets ended in red today but Sensex and Nifty were the biggest losers. Indians seem to overreact either way. European markets are trading mixed. Lets hope US opens and, more importantly, closes positive.

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

11 -Feb -2008 :- Can Indian Markets stop the bleeding?

It's Monday 11th February 2008 and I should say there is hope that the Indian Markets will rebound this week - pre-budget rally is what's it's called.

I am just a new entry into the stock markets and have been doing pretty bad at it so I will keep out of passing judgments on the news and views of various analysts and brokerage firms.

Since this is my first post, I have not yet thought about how the posts should be - what to include, how to format and present. So forgive me if you can't make sense of the first few posts. I promise they will get better as time goes on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Market :-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trading has started on the other Asian Markets and, not surprisingly, they have opened lower. Wow, thats encouraging!! No??

Lets see if there any encouraging news from any of the financial papers and websites

Bloomberg :-

A couple of stories caught my eye and they are not good

Group of Seven policy makers said the U.S. economy may slow further, eroding global growth, and officials forecast more financial-market turmoil.

India's industrial production probably grew less than 10 percent in December for the second time in three months, adding pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

Yahoo Finance :-

GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-G7 does little to calm nerves

Asian stocks fall on credit worries (Reuters)

ChannelNewsAsia :-

Analysts say G7 does not offer markets a 'quick fix'

Economic Times :-

Markets eye R-Power listing for future cues

Investors lose over $100 bn in market crash

Mkt crash: Small investors down but not out

Equities seen volatile; R Power listing eyed: Volatility is likely to remain the order of the day amid global market weakness. The Reliance Power listing slated on Monday will also play an important role in deciding the market direction

MoneyControl :-

Mkts to stage a rally in run-up to Budget: Credit Suisse

Sify :-

Investors less interested in high-priced IPO: Marketmen

Investors will gain long term: Anil Ambani

I guess it's enough of bad news for now. I am depressed already! Let's see whether the pre-budget rally that everyone talks about happens. But my guess is that the Indian Markets will open lower. This is easy to predict now since the de-coupling theory was proven wrong.
Lets keep our fingers crossed and wait!!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market :-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As expected the market has opened lower. A small update from rediff on the Reliance Power if you have not already known the news

The stock touched a high of Rs 600, and a low of Rs 389, and is trading at Rs 443 - a discount of Rs 10 - as of 1100hrs. The weighted average price on the BSE is Rs 435, and around 2.51 crore shares have changed hands so far on the exchange

IbnLive says "Markets trade in red: Energy, realty, midcaps down"

RK :-

Market is down 784 points. Pretty bad day and I think my portfolio must have gone down by another 10-15%. God save me!!

Yahoo Finance

Reuters report states that "European stocks were set to drop on Monday on
concerns that the global credit crisis could spread, but rising commodity prices
may lend support to energy and mining companies"

RK at 13 hrs:-

Every one thought Reliance Power to be the savior but none in their wildest dreams could have thought that Reliance Power could hurt the sentiments so much and bring down the Market

Analyst's Views and Predictions :-

Here are some of the views and opinions of some of the analysts

Investors would be advised to stay away from this market which could be seeing a pause in the bull run, says Ashu Madan of Religare, on CNBC TV18

One can deploy around 25-30% cash in this market since valuations look good for many stocks now, says Dilip Bhatt of Prabhudas Liladhar, on CNBC Awaaz

Frontline stocks in capital goods, engineering, real estate, steel, banking and financial services sector look good after this market fall, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials, on CNBC Awaaz

While global cues are weak, there seems to be a general nervousness in the Indian market with no buying from any quarter (no retail investors or FIIs), says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey, on NDTV Profit

Financial crisis will have impact on world economy, says IMF on NDTV Profit

The world is in the grip of a bear market and the Indian market is also showing signs of being bearish, says Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities, on CNBC TV 18

Puru Saxena, Chief Executive of Purusaxena.com said, the uptrend in the Sensex would resume after some basing and consolidation

Wait for markets to find a bottom: Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends

As we can see there is no dearth of analysts but why such differing opinions? Lets see who gets it right at the end of the day!!

RK at 14 hrs: -

I will stay out of the market for the moment. I have some cash but would not place it unless I really the tide turning.

RK at 15:30 hrs: -

Sensex down by a little over 800 points and Nifty a little over 250 points. The message that is being made clear by the analysts and the market is that its very dangerous to speculate at the moment. Almost all agree that you put your money if you are looking at long term

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com