15 - Feb -2008 : Analyst's Views and whats in store for the day ahead!

Mr.Bernanke's comments have pulled down the US markets yesterday and the Asian markets are following suit today morning. My guess is that India will be no different.

If you had read some of the analysts views about the yesterday's surge its clear that they see it just as a blip and not the start of a new bull run. Trading volumes were low yesterday so they claim investors have not fully participated which means there is still lack of confidence.

If the US markets had closed with some positive news then I would have hoped that Indian markets would have ended the week bringing joy to all the investors and traders but its going to be another rough ride today.

One thing is clear it does not matter how good the Indian economy is and will be growing but it really matters how US economy is. Perhaps this will be the case till China and India become the world's two biggest economies then the stock markets will reflect the true condition of the economy.

I will be updating the post through out the day as when the analyst's views come in.

PS: Asian markets have opened in the red

RK
RentalAndRealEstate.com

15 -Feb - 2008 : Overnight Headlines to start your day

Overnight headline's:

Economic Times

• Promoters take advantage of mkt meltdown
• Separate hype from reality on US slowdown: Accenture
• RCom for possible takeover of Capgemini
• India, China to drive auto growth in 2008: Daimler

Financial Express

• Govt Bites The Bullet: Fuel Prices Hiked
• Indias gold demand rises 6%
• Financial reforms unlikely to take place before LS polls
• Steel companies relent, agree to roll back hike

CNN Money

• Wall Street slumps as investors react to Fed chair's economic outlook.Stocks tumbled Thursday as investors reacted to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony that economic conditions are likely to get worse before they get better
• Gore to Wall Street: beware of 'subprime carbon'
• Boeing partners with Tata for plane parts

Sify

• Boeing, Tata announce new joint venture
• Wipro unit wins $50 m outsourcing deal
• Idea adds 1.2 million new connections in 2007-08
• 'IT sector layoffs unrelated to economic slowdown'
• NIIT Tech adopts new model to boost profitability
• Punj Lloyd to build $282 m resort in Singapore

ChannelNewsAsia

• New York state governor Eliot Spitzer warned Thursday that bond and credit woes afflicting Wall Street and global markets could turn into a more damaging "financial tsunami."
• US dollar slips after Fed chief opens door to rate cuts
• Dow slumps as Fed chief sees 'sluggish' growth
• US sub-prime crisis costs global loss of US$7.7 trillion
  

MoneyControl

• Mkt gains driven by large-scale short covering: MS
• Fuel prices hiked to avoid fiscal system collapse: PM
• Volatility to continue for now: Mangal Keshav

Business Standard

• Tatas find an ally in Orient-Express battle
• Boeing, Tata form India JV for aerospace parts
• Cap on foreign inflow into debt market to stay: RBI
• India can sustain 9% growth: PM

14 - Feb -2008 : Happy Valentines day to all the investors and traders!!

Finally, there is something to cheer about on Valentines day. There were positive news everywhere - US retail sales were better than expected, Japan economy grew more than expected and the the markets did not disappoint.

It was a brilliant day. Sensex closed at 17766, up 817 points and Nifty at 5202, up 272 points from the previous close. More importantly there were no wild swings during the day. It was pretty stable which is the most positive news.

European markets are also trading in the positive and if US closes positive today then we can expect a bonanza tomorrow and at least I can recover all my losses. Looking forward to it.

The one stock I am worried about in my portfolio is Satyam Computers. I bought it at 442 and have been holding it for 4 months now and I have not seen go past 442, expect briefly. So I am in a dilemma to sell it or hold it. Lets see how it goes tomorrow.

I end this post with some of the Analyst's view from the day

In the IT space, if Satyam stays above Rs 420 one can hold on to the stock for long term and it has a target price of Rs 500-520 in two weeks, says says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business

Following the fuel price hike, ONGC amd Oil India will share 33% of under recoveries, says Oil Secretary M.S. Srinivasan, on NDTV Profit

If one has a 6-8 month horizon, stocks to accumulate are ICICI Bank, SBI, BHEL and L&T as they are likely to offer good returns, says Shishir Kedia, technical anlayst with Religare Securities, on CNBC Awaaz

Investment sentiment continues to be cautious and that trend is likely to continue for a few weeks, says Malcolm Wood of Morgan Stanley, on CNBC TV18. The market is offering tremendous buying opportunity at this time, he adds

Global concerns are not yet over and we are still not out of the woods, feels Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities, on NDTV Profit

The market had gone down too far, too fast and it is advisable to wait and watch in this scenario, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials, on NDTV Profit. This relief rally needs to be sustained and the market is not running away on the higher side for investors, he advises


The market has got some positive breather from the oil price hike, says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey, on CNBC-TV18. Next week the market is likely to see be in the range of 16200-18500, he adds

The petrol and diesel price hike will see an annualised benefit to oil companies of around Rs 6500 crore, reports NDTV Profit. The price hike will see IOC benefit by Rs 410 crore for the remaining of FY08, says S V Narasimhan, director, finance of the company, on the channel

RK
RentalAndRealEstate.com

14 -Feb -2008 : Can Valentines day bring cheer to the Indian Markets?

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Headlines of the Day:
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Economic Times

It is time for caution: Infosys CEO

Software firms worry US weakness will hit India biz

R Power loss totals about Rs 100 a share

India may feel pinch of global crisis: IMF

CNN Money

Retail sales spark rally, Blue chips rally for 3rd session

Financial Express

Another Fed cut likely as borrowing costs stay high

Learn lessons from American slump: Left tells UPA govt

Double taxation and multiple levies hampering growth

IMF asks India to gear up to tackle global crisis

Moodys alarm bell for 2008 as well

Sify

Rupee at 2-½ month lows on dollar squeeze

Special bonds pose risk to India deficit: JP Morgan

ChannelNewsAsia

Japan's economy grows 3.7% in fourth quarter of 2007

Singapore's economic growth moderates in Q4 of 2007

US dollar gains after strong US retail sales data

Wall Street rallies on upbeat retail sales data

Bush signs economic stimulus package

MoneyControl

See buying opportunities in mkt: Morgan Stanley

No positive triggers for mkt in near-term: Religare

Enough forces to keep mkts volatile: Pranav Sec

Sensex to see 21K-24K range in 1 year: MOST

See large exodus of foreign investors: ABN Amro

Business Standard

Sebi brings art funds under its canvas

US Markets ended in green, Asian Markets are in green at this moment and I can only see happy people the end of the day. Happy Valentines Day!!

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

13 - Feb -2008 : Market ends on a high!!

Indian Markets ended on a positive note even though the European markets were trading in the negative and Asian markets had closed mixed.

Day was mostly stable and the expected volatility was not there. But the overall market breadth was negative - there were more declines than advances.

Markets will be in trouble tomorrow if US and Europe closes in negative today. Its going to be a wait and watch policy. At least I am not going to invest anytime soon. I will wait for at least a week of stable trading before I make a decision. I am a novice and I don't want to risk anymore of my money

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

13 -Feb -2008 : Today could be a mixed bag!

First, the overnight headlines from some of the websites
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Pre -Market News:-
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Economic Times

India's industrial activity is expected to cool due to the impact of RBI's policy tightening and the rupee's appreciation: HSBC

Financial Express

In a move that is expected to spur consumer spending, finance minister P Chidambaram on Tuesday asked public sector banks (PSBs) to ensure adequate credit supply for home and consumer durables purchases

At 24%, India to log highest SMB IT spend in BRIC

TCS to restructure for agility

Industrial growth plummets to 7.6%

Tea exports in 2007 fall 28% on rupee rise

Coffee touches a decade high

IBN Live

Market mayhem: Parliament panel wants change in norms

ChannelNewsAsia

US job cuts mount as slowdown erodes corporate profits

US stocks end mixed as Buffett reaches out to insurers

MoneyControl

Don't see knee jerk reaction below 16k: Mangal Keshav

Mkts can fall another 7%: India Infoline

Feb 11 crash similar to May '06 correction

Business Standard

CBDT wants capital gains tax for all FIIs :- n its pre-Budget proposals to the finance ministry, CBDT has sought an amendment to Section 115 AD of the Income Tax Act so that all foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pay capital gains tax on their profits in India

Revisit realty sector exemptions: I-T Dept

ICICI-Pru to launch first fixed maturity plan for retail investors

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Analysts Views:-
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Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz :

Sentiments have turned negative in the market which has become 'sell on rise and not buy on dips'

Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley, on NDTV Profit :

Indian growth story is less likely to be affected by a US slowdown. Indian GDP growth is expected to be at 7.4% in FY09 and Indian inflation is being assumed at 4.7% average for FY09, he adds. Emerging markets are better poised to face a mild US recession, he says

Anil Maghnani, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18 :

Nifty has strong resistance at the 200 DMA level of 4975 and till it closes above that convincingly one should not go long in this market

Rajat Rajgarhia, Motilal Oswal, on CNBC TV18 :

Sensex is likely to be in the range of 20,000-24,000 in one year

Gaurang Shah, Geojit Financials, on Zee Business :

The banking sector is likely to outperform in the long term and stocks that can be accumulated in this space include ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank

Prashant Jain, HDFC MF, on CNBC Awaaz :

The market is likely to see short-term volatility but India's long-term story is intact

Sandep Wagle, Angel Broking, on NDTV Profit :

If Sensex breaks 15300 then it could be called a bear market but until then it could be termed a corrective phase

Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley, on CNBC TV18 :

About 10% lower than current levels would be a fair value for the market. The market is expected to give 18-20% earnings growth and one should stay with the largecap stocks. The Indian IPO market is likely to remain lackluster and investors may use lower prices to buy stocks

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

12-Feb-2008 : Is there light at the end of the tunnel!!

Since the markets are being hammered we now have analysts coming forward and talking about cyclical bear markets. Stock market analysts seem to be more like cricket commentators. All are good at making statements after the results are out! Anyways lets see what the markets have in store for us today.
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Pre-Market : Is there a hope??
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Fortunately, US Markets have closed in the positive and it is reflected in the Asian Markets. Most of them have opened in the positive. That's a good sign, at least for today.

I was hit by this most damning of statements while browsing through the various news sites

Sensex may fall another 20% by yr-end: First Global

Another one that caught my eye after the Reliance Power debacle is

Is it the end of the road for primary market?

Some encouraging statements were also there

TCS sees no immediate impact due to US slowdown

The global equity market meltdown hit India the least compared with other emerging equity markets in January. The Indian market shed 16% as against Russia's 16.12% and China's 21.40% - Do you consider this as positive?

Asian markets being in the positive territory is a solace so my guess is that Indian markets will follow them but how they close will be another matter altogether.

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Market : Did it react as expected?
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Market has opened positive in line with the other Asian markets but was hugely volatile through out the day. And it has closed in the negative but the day has to be termed very good as compared to yesterday. The volatility is still there - guess people are ready to sell off whenever the stocks make a slight recovery. It can only say that there are lot of speculators in the market than investors. People seem to be worried. India is still growing and there is no bad news on the economy front but still people don't seem to have the confidence. I am not sure what the FIIs and the MFs are doing. Are they staying put or selling off?

But one thing for sure, whatever happened in the last few weeks is good for the genuine investors who look to invest in fundamentally strong stocks. They must have felt like fools when the dubious stocks were running up crazy and the sound stocks stuck.

European markets are in positive but only marginally. If we will have a couple of days without negative news from US then the world markets will get a chance to stabilize and we can all take a breather.


RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

11-Feb-2008 : Predictions for 12th Feb??

Any readers willing to predict how the markets will move tomorrow?

Please leave a comment and it should make for interesting discussions

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

11-Feb-2008: Indian Stock Market Ends A Miserable Day

More misery was piled on the millions of retail investors and speculators today. De-coupling theory can now be completely thrown out of the door. I am not sure what the analysts, who were earlier, preaching about this theory have to say now.

Anyhow, this is how it has ended - Sensex down 833 points and closed at 16630, Nifty closed at 4857, down 263 points. And the much awaited Reliance Power listing became a most unpredicted disappointment - closed at 372!

All the Asian markets ended in red today but Sensex and Nifty were the biggest losers. Indians seem to overreact either way. European markets are trading mixed. Lets hope US opens and, more importantly, closes positive.

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com

11 -Feb -2008 :- Can Indian Markets stop the bleeding?

It's Monday 11th February 2008 and I should say there is hope that the Indian Markets will rebound this week - pre-budget rally is what's it's called.

I am just a new entry into the stock markets and have been doing pretty bad at it so I will keep out of passing judgments on the news and views of various analysts and brokerage firms.

Since this is my first post, I have not yet thought about how the posts should be - what to include, how to format and present. So forgive me if you can't make sense of the first few posts. I promise they will get better as time goes on.
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Pre-Market :-
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Trading has started on the other Asian Markets and, not surprisingly, they have opened lower. Wow, thats encouraging!! No??

Lets see if there any encouraging news from any of the financial papers and websites

Bloomberg :-

A couple of stories caught my eye and they are not good

Group of Seven policy makers said the U.S. economy may slow further, eroding global growth, and officials forecast more financial-market turmoil.

India's industrial production probably grew less than 10 percent in December for the second time in three months, adding pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

Yahoo Finance :-

GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-G7 does little to calm nerves

Asian stocks fall on credit worries (Reuters)

ChannelNewsAsia :-

Analysts say G7 does not offer markets a 'quick fix'

Economic Times :-

Markets eye R-Power listing for future cues

Investors lose over $100 bn in market crash

Mkt crash: Small investors down but not out

Equities seen volatile; R Power listing eyed: Volatility is likely to remain the order of the day amid global market weakness. The Reliance Power listing slated on Monday will also play an important role in deciding the market direction

MoneyControl :-

Mkts to stage a rally in run-up to Budget: Credit Suisse

Sify :-

Investors less interested in high-priced IPO: Marketmen

Investors will gain long term: Anil Ambani

I guess it's enough of bad news for now. I am depressed already! Let's see whether the pre-budget rally that everyone talks about happens. But my guess is that the Indian Markets will open lower. This is easy to predict now since the de-coupling theory was proven wrong.
Lets keep our fingers crossed and wait!!
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Market :-
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As expected the market has opened lower. A small update from rediff on the Reliance Power if you have not already known the news

The stock touched a high of Rs 600, and a low of Rs 389, and is trading at Rs 443 - a discount of Rs 10 - as of 1100hrs. The weighted average price on the BSE is Rs 435, and around 2.51 crore shares have changed hands so far on the exchange

IbnLive says "Markets trade in red: Energy, realty, midcaps down"

RK :-

Market is down 784 points. Pretty bad day and I think my portfolio must have gone down by another 10-15%. God save me!!

Yahoo Finance

Reuters report states that "European stocks were set to drop on Monday on
concerns that the global credit crisis could spread, but rising commodity prices
may lend support to energy and mining companies"

RK at 13 hrs:-

Every one thought Reliance Power to be the savior but none in their wildest dreams could have thought that Reliance Power could hurt the sentiments so much and bring down the Market

Analyst's Views and Predictions :-

Here are some of the views and opinions of some of the analysts

Investors would be advised to stay away from this market which could be seeing a pause in the bull run, says Ashu Madan of Religare, on CNBC TV18

One can deploy around 25-30% cash in this market since valuations look good for many stocks now, says Dilip Bhatt of Prabhudas Liladhar, on CNBC Awaaz

Frontline stocks in capital goods, engineering, real estate, steel, banking and financial services sector look good after this market fall, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials, on CNBC Awaaz

While global cues are weak, there seems to be a general nervousness in the Indian market with no buying from any quarter (no retail investors or FIIs), says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey, on NDTV Profit

Financial crisis will have impact on world economy, says IMF on NDTV Profit

The world is in the grip of a bear market and the Indian market is also showing signs of being bearish, says Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities, on CNBC TV 18

Puru Saxena, Chief Executive of Purusaxena.com said, the uptrend in the Sensex would resume after some basing and consolidation

Wait for markets to find a bottom: Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends

As we can see there is no dearth of analysts but why such differing opinions? Lets see who gets it right at the end of the day!!

RK at 14 hrs: -

I will stay out of the market for the moment. I have some cash but would not place it unless I really the tide turning.

RK at 15:30 hrs: -

Sensex down by a little over 800 points and Nifty a little over 250 points. The message that is being made clear by the analysts and the market is that its very dangerous to speculate at the moment. Almost all agree that you put your money if you are looking at long term

RK
http://www.RentalAndRealEstate.com